A study led by the University of the Balearic Islands highlights a key conclusion for global risk analysis: the intensity of a natural disaster has a far greater impact on international tourism flows than the mere frequency of events.
The research, published in the scientific journal Tourism Management, analyzes 27 years of data combining information from 143 countries, international tourism statistics, and global records of natural disasters. The aim was to better understand how extreme events influence traveler behavior and the resilience of tourism destinations.
Event magnitude determines the impact
The results show that high-intensity disasters lead to significant declines in international tourist arrivals, particularly in developing economies. These countries often have more fragile infrastructures, lower institutional response capacity, and greater difficulty restoring confidence in the tourism market after a major event.
In contrast, destinations in advanced economies demonstrate greater resilience. In some cases, following moderate events, they may even experience rapid recovery or temporary increases in tourism, driven by better emergency management, stronger infrastructure, and a higher perception of safety among travelers.
Factors that shape tourism impact
The study also identifies several factors that can amplify or mitigate the effect of a disaster on tourism demand:
- Distance from the travelers’ country of origin
- Income level of tourists
- Geographic proximity or shared borders
- Institutional capacity of the destination
- Tourism and health infrastructure
These elements help explain why two destinations affected by similar disasters may experience very different tourism impacts.
Implications in the context of climate change
In a scenario marked by an increasing number of extreme climate events, the authors emphasize that the vulnerability of destinations does not depend solely on the natural phenomenon itself, but also on economic, institutional, and risk management factors.
For the most exposed destinations—particularly in developing regions—the study highlights the need to:
- improve disaster preparedness,
- strengthen infrastructure resilience,
- develop tailored tourism recovery strategies,
- and reinforce international cooperation.
A key message for global risk management
From a risk analysis and destination security perspective, the research reinforces a central idea: not all disasters have the same impact. The magnitude of the event and the system’s response capacity largely determine the speed of recovery and the subsequent economic stability.
In a world increasingly exposed to extreme events, integrating risk management into tourism planning will be a critical element for the resilience of destinations.
More information
Biardeau L, Rosselló J, Sahli M, Santana-Gallego M. Natural disasters and global tourism flows: Intensity, vulnerability and moderating factors. Tourism Management. 2026;114:105390. doi:10.1016/j.tourman.2025.105390. Read the study
